The James Harden Trade Revisited

By: Jake Bielecki

Nearly five months ago the Thunder controversially dealt James Harden to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and picks headlined by Toronto's first rounder this year. Put plainly the motive behind the deal for OKC was money, whereas the Rockets sought to improve their team. With nearly an entire NBA regular season to digest the deal, how has it impacted each team?

Houston

The trade was simple, they'd been stockpiling assets for a couple years in an attempt to secure a franchise cornerstone. While the Rockets were unable to secure Dwight Howard, James Harden seemed to be a fair consolation prize at the time. Nowadays it's looking like Harden may have been the real gem anyways.

In an expanded role last year's sixth-man-of-the-year is averaging 26 points and nearly six assists and five rebounds a game. While the team gave up quality long-term assets in Jeremy Lamb and the Raptors lottery pick Houston still retained affordable young players to build around. More importantly they've given Houston a franchise player they can get behind.

Surrounded by talented players on rookie contracts, notably Chandler Parsons, Thomas Robinson, Royce White, and Donatas Motiejunas, Houston is an attractive landing spot for free agents this off-season. Players understand which teams are on the rise talent-wise and in terms of cap flexibility. Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey's patience has paid off.

All that holds this team back is Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik's poison pill contracts. Both earn about 5-million a year this season and next, however the third and final year of their contracts combine for nearly 30 million. Asik has proved to be an invaluable presence down low but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Lin scrapped for parts. The team would be better off with a spot-up shooter rather than a driver alongside Harden, anyways.

Oklahoma City

Breaking down the Thunder side of the deal is where things get interesting, and you can look at it from multiple perspectives. They certainly would have had a better chance of winning the championship with Harden this season, but they also planted the seeds for sustained success and flexibility down the line.

In Harden's stead Kevin Martin has done what's expected of him. Accepting a smaller role Martin is shooting 43% from downtown, a career high, a product of the open looks afforded to him by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Jeremy Lamb has seen next to no action for the Thunder but has been effective in the D-League, scoring 21 points a game on 47% shooting.

What the Thunder afforded themselves are cheap, talented options they can develop to fill their needs around Durant and Westbrook. Lamb shares a similar skill-set to Kevin Martin and may make the latter expendable as he enters free agency. With the Raptors pick expect the Thunder to search for a future replacement for Kendrick Perkins, that is unless the organization trusts Hasheem Thabeet.

While I'm feeling Thabeet and Lamb, they are not the only young fellas they're developing and deciding what to do with. Last year's first-round pick Reggie Jackson has been explosive in limited minutes and Perry Jones was one of the biggest boom-or-bust selections in the 2012 draft.

Clearly, Sam Presti had an end-goal in mind when he traded Harden for parts - remain elite this year with a proven scorer on a one-year contract in Kevin Martin while stocking up for the future.

Questions remain, however. Was setting themselves up for the future worth losing Harden? Could they have found a way to keep Harden along with their current base of Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka?

My answer to the first question is, yeah, it was probably worth it. While I have the Miami Heat as the front-runner (aided by an easier path to the finals) the Thunder remain worthy adversaries and could easily win this year as well. In theory this team has an elite base for the next 10 years, coupled with talented role players on rookie contracts, rather than those overpaid in free agency.

My issue with the trade comes down to whether they could have kept Harden without losing Ibaka, and I believe they could. The answer was simple – amnesty Kendrick Perkins. Perks value to this team is obvious. He does the dirty work, doesn't need touches, combats elite big men in the Western Conference.

He's also getting paid 24 million over the next three years. Wiping out his salary would have covered more than half the salary Harden would have received. Considering the Brooklyn Nets signed Andray Blatche for a minimum contract and the Phoenix Suns added Jermaine O'Neal for just over a million, there were alternatives.

Moreover, in a theoretical showdown against the Heat who rarely play a true center, Perkins impact is negated. The current Thunder starting lineup has Ibaka on either Lebron or Shane Battier. A match-up that was exploited in the last season's championship series as Ibaka either left Battier open for threes or had his shot-blocking presence negated when Battier pulled him from the paint.

In retrospect, the Rockets clearly bettered their team for the present and future with the trade.

The Thunder's motives were understandable, and the execution sound, however the move is still up for debate. The success will depend on the development of their young players, the quality of the players they draft, and whether they still find a way to win multiple championships.

Trade deadline tips and targets March 2013

By: Jake Bielecki

It's the most wonderful time of the year – the fantasy basketball trade deadline. Before I get into what players you should NOT target at the deadline, here is the philosophy I try to use when trading, maybe it can help you with your deadline deals.

Help Me Help You

There's nothing worse than trading with someone who doesn't take your needs into account. To find a mutually beneficial trade without targeting needs means both teams must feel they're winning value-wise while also feeling this value gain outweighs any category and positional sacrifices. These trades are rare at best. Instead, identify what your trading partner needs, develop that need, and exploit it.

Evan Turner

Just heard a stat today, Turner is in the company of LeBron, Durant, Paul Pierce, Paul George and Josh Smith as the only players averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. If your league only counts the three sexy stats, Turner is an excellent asset.

In the complementary stats the former #2 overall pick leaves much to be desired. He averages less than a steal and three per game, 2.5 turnovers and a sub-75% clip from the line. Moreover, he's receiving unsustainable usage in an ideal Philadelphia situation.

He averages 36 minutes per game – more than 10 more than his rate last year. Since the departure of Andre Iguodala the scoring and playmaking load has fallen on Turner and teammate Jrue Holliday, a key for his fantasy success. So why is this a bad thing?

For one, if Andrew Bynum returns next year at 80% what he was last year, the offense will go through him. Even if he doesn't, Philadelphia is 23-36, the current formula isn't working. Expect changes to be made.

On paper Evan Turner looks great and the current owner certainly knows this. A former #2 overall pick, averaging 14/6/4 with six years until his 30th birthday, there will be a manager willing to pay through the nose. A value you will need to top to get his services.

I'm not saying Turner won't improve over the remainder of his career, he may even develop a three pointer and better tenacity on defense, that wouldn't be unexpected. The problem is paying for those expected improvements on top of a sexy 14/6/4 starting point will likely result in you overpaying.

Brandon Jennings

I play in a league without FG% and turnovers, damn is Jennings sexy in this format. The fourth year point-guard heads into restricted free agency this off-season with at least 15 points, 4.5 assists, 1.5 threes, 1.3 steals, and an 80% from the line in each-and-every NBA season.

Currently playing on a classic Monta Ellis team who has provided the blueprint of a my turn, your turn backcourt, Jennings style of play is not the way you want out of your point guard. The Bucks lack continuity and ball movement on offense. A simple drive-and-kick constitutes exemplary team play for this club. As a result they often find themselves settling for many long Jennings threes at the end of shot-clocks.

Again this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's a big reason why he's such a solid fantasy contributor. Trying to stay ahead of the curve, I believe these things find a way to correct themselves. The same way Kyle Korver was a top-50 asset for a solid stretch this year, he's just not that good in real life. I expect Jennings to eventually wind up in a situation that offers him greater efficiency with fewer opportunities per game.

Similar to Turner, don't pay for expected improvements on a young guy benefiting from situation. A 37-minute-per-game player Jennings will have nowhere to go but down purposes if gobbled up by an established team in free agency. If you're a Jennings owner, test the lucrative market while you still can.