Trade deadline tips and targets March 2013

By: Jake Bielecki

It's the most wonderful time of the year – the fantasy basketball trade deadline. Before I get into what players you should NOT target at the deadline, here is the philosophy I try to use when trading, maybe it can help you with your deadline deals.

Help Me Help You

There's nothing worse than trading with someone who doesn't take your needs into account. To find a mutually beneficial trade without targeting needs means both teams must feel they're winning value-wise while also feeling this value gain outweighs any category and positional sacrifices. These trades are rare at best. Instead, identify what your trading partner needs, develop that need, and exploit it.

Evan Turner

Just heard a stat today, Turner is in the company of LeBron, Durant, Paul Pierce, Paul George and Josh Smith as the only players averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. If your league only counts the three sexy stats, Turner is an excellent asset.

In the complementary stats the former #2 overall pick leaves much to be desired. He averages less than a steal and three per game, 2.5 turnovers and a sub-75% clip from the line. Moreover, he's receiving unsustainable usage in an ideal Philadelphia situation.

He averages 36 minutes per game – more than 10 more than his rate last year. Since the departure of Andre Iguodala the scoring and playmaking load has fallen on Turner and teammate Jrue Holliday, a key for his fantasy success. So why is this a bad thing?

For one, if Andrew Bynum returns next year at 80% what he was last year, the offense will go through him. Even if he doesn't, Philadelphia is 23-36, the current formula isn't working. Expect changes to be made.

On paper Evan Turner looks great and the current owner certainly knows this. A former #2 overall pick, averaging 14/6/4 with six years until his 30th birthday, there will be a manager willing to pay through the nose. A value you will need to top to get his services.

I'm not saying Turner won't improve over the remainder of his career, he may even develop a three pointer and better tenacity on defense, that wouldn't be unexpected. The problem is paying for those expected improvements on top of a sexy 14/6/4 starting point will likely result in you overpaying.

Brandon Jennings

I play in a league without FG% and turnovers, damn is Jennings sexy in this format. The fourth year point-guard heads into restricted free agency this off-season with at least 15 points, 4.5 assists, 1.5 threes, 1.3 steals, and an 80% from the line in each-and-every NBA season.

Currently playing on a classic Monta Ellis team who has provided the blueprint of a my turn, your turn backcourt, Jennings style of play is not the way you want out of your point guard. The Bucks lack continuity and ball movement on offense. A simple drive-and-kick constitutes exemplary team play for this club. As a result they often find themselves settling for many long Jennings threes at the end of shot-clocks.

Again this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's a big reason why he's such a solid fantasy contributor. Trying to stay ahead of the curve, I believe these things find a way to correct themselves. The same way Kyle Korver was a top-50 asset for a solid stretch this year, he's just not that good in real life. I expect Jennings to eventually wind up in a situation that offers him greater efficiency with fewer opportunities per game.

Similar to Turner, don't pay for expected improvements on a young guy benefiting from situation. A 37-minute-per-game player Jennings will have nowhere to go but down purposes if gobbled up by an established team in free agency. If you're a Jennings owner, test the lucrative market while you still can.