The James Harden Trade Revisited

By: Jake Bielecki

Nearly five months ago the Thunder controversially dealt James Harden to Houston for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and picks headlined by Toronto's first rounder this year. Put plainly the motive behind the deal for OKC was money, whereas the Rockets sought to improve their team. With nearly an entire NBA regular season to digest the deal, how has it impacted each team?

Houston

The trade was simple, they'd been stockpiling assets for a couple years in an attempt to secure a franchise cornerstone. While the Rockets were unable to secure Dwight Howard, James Harden seemed to be a fair consolation prize at the time. Nowadays it's looking like Harden may have been the real gem anyways.

In an expanded role last year's sixth-man-of-the-year is averaging 26 points and nearly six assists and five rebounds a game. While the team gave up quality long-term assets in Jeremy Lamb and the Raptors lottery pick Houston still retained affordable young players to build around. More importantly they've given Houston a franchise player they can get behind.

Surrounded by talented players on rookie contracts, notably Chandler Parsons, Thomas Robinson, Royce White, and Donatas Motiejunas, Houston is an attractive landing spot for free agents this off-season. Players understand which teams are on the rise talent-wise and in terms of cap flexibility. Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey's patience has paid off.

All that holds this team back is Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik's poison pill contracts. Both earn about 5-million a year this season and next, however the third and final year of their contracts combine for nearly 30 million. Asik has proved to be an invaluable presence down low but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Lin scrapped for parts. The team would be better off with a spot-up shooter rather than a driver alongside Harden, anyways.

Oklahoma City

Breaking down the Thunder side of the deal is where things get interesting, and you can look at it from multiple perspectives. They certainly would have had a better chance of winning the championship with Harden this season, but they also planted the seeds for sustained success and flexibility down the line.

In Harden's stead Kevin Martin has done what's expected of him. Accepting a smaller role Martin is shooting 43% from downtown, a career high, a product of the open looks afforded to him by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Jeremy Lamb has seen next to no action for the Thunder but has been effective in the D-League, scoring 21 points a game on 47% shooting.

What the Thunder afforded themselves are cheap, talented options they can develop to fill their needs around Durant and Westbrook. Lamb shares a similar skill-set to Kevin Martin and may make the latter expendable as he enters free agency. With the Raptors pick expect the Thunder to search for a future replacement for Kendrick Perkins, that is unless the organization trusts Hasheem Thabeet.

While I'm feeling Thabeet and Lamb, they are not the only young fellas they're developing and deciding what to do with. Last year's first-round pick Reggie Jackson has been explosive in limited minutes and Perry Jones was one of the biggest boom-or-bust selections in the 2012 draft.

Clearly, Sam Presti had an end-goal in mind when he traded Harden for parts - remain elite this year with a proven scorer on a one-year contract in Kevin Martin while stocking up for the future.

Questions remain, however. Was setting themselves up for the future worth losing Harden? Could they have found a way to keep Harden along with their current base of Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka?

My answer to the first question is, yeah, it was probably worth it. While I have the Miami Heat as the front-runner (aided by an easier path to the finals) the Thunder remain worthy adversaries and could easily win this year as well. In theory this team has an elite base for the next 10 years, coupled with talented role players on rookie contracts, rather than those overpaid in free agency.

My issue with the trade comes down to whether they could have kept Harden without losing Ibaka, and I believe they could. The answer was simple – amnesty Kendrick Perkins. Perks value to this team is obvious. He does the dirty work, doesn't need touches, combats elite big men in the Western Conference.

He's also getting paid 24 million over the next three years. Wiping out his salary would have covered more than half the salary Harden would have received. Considering the Brooklyn Nets signed Andray Blatche for a minimum contract and the Phoenix Suns added Jermaine O'Neal for just over a million, there were alternatives.

Moreover, in a theoretical showdown against the Heat who rarely play a true center, Perkins impact is negated. The current Thunder starting lineup has Ibaka on either Lebron or Shane Battier. A match-up that was exploited in the last season's championship series as Ibaka either left Battier open for threes or had his shot-blocking presence negated when Battier pulled him from the paint.

In retrospect, the Rockets clearly bettered their team for the present and future with the trade.

The Thunder's motives were understandable, and the execution sound, however the move is still up for debate. The success will depend on the development of their young players, the quality of the players they draft, and whether they still find a way to win multiple championships.

Long-term projections for five fantasy basketball pro rookies

By: Jake Bielecki

+ Anthony Davis:
Already posting impressive fantasy numbers across the board, notably his 1.2 steals and 1.8 blocks, yet only scratching the surface offensively. Projecting into the future he'll serve as a rare center shooting upwards of 80% from the line as his offensive repertoire improves in all facets. Durability is the only red flag at this juncture; given an uptick in minutes Davis could be a Kevin Garnett-esque fantasy stud in his prime.

Projected "prime" line: 34 minutes per game - 19 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game.

+ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist:
Like his Kentucky teammate MKG hangs his hat on spectacular defense and consistent effort. Improving his jump shot and finding an offensive rhythm each-and-ever game remain priorities. He may never be as dynamite in fantasy as he could be in real life. His recent cold-streak provides an ample opportunity to buy on a sure thing long-term.

Projected "prime" line: 36 minutes per game - 14 points, 7.5 rebounds , 1.5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game.

+ Bradley Beal:
After a slow start to the season Beal has stepped up his game alongside a healthy John Wall. The range has been as good as advertised, and you can expect a healthy uptick in rebounds. Beal averaged nearly seven a game at Florida and rebounds typically transfers well from college to the pros. Still only 19-years-old he should progress into a quality number-two scoring option.

Projected "prime" line: 33 minutes per game - 18 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.2 steals per game.

+ Dion Waiters:
With a quick first step the Cavaliers fourth-overall pick will always be able to get to the basket. Shooting touch is the issue here. Lacking the knockdown shooting ability of a typical two guard and the play-making ability of a point, Waiters is a classic tweener.

Asked to take on a larger role this season, he's most likely a high-end combo guard off the bench next year and beyond; think Jarrett Jack. If you are looking to trade, use the allure of a player posting respectable numbers and find a manager who expects him to build upon his rookie campaign.

Projected "prime" line: 28 minutes per game - 13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.

+ Thomas Robinson: I'm surprised a tornado didn't stem from the sigh of relief Mama Robinson exhaled upon T-Rob's departure from Sacramento. An inept franchise fielding a team that doesn't mesh whatsoever, Robinson was placed in a difficult situation where success was but a myth.

Now on a Rockets team in desperate need of an interior presence, he should see more run alongside Omer Asik in a clearly defined role. Robinson's mid-range jumper is underrated; given his athleticism, anything resembling a post game and the Rockets now have a respectable offensive player. The ideal time to buy in a dynasty has passed but the window has not closed shut.

Projected "prime" line: 30 minutes per game - 9 points, 11 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game.

Video via Kentucky Wildcats TV official YouTube channel.

[Editor's Note 26 February 2013] The title of this post changed to better reflect the objective of forecasting stat lines of these five rookies as they enter the prime of their careers.